Commanders vs Rams – Week 15 2023
WAS
LA
WAS
AWAY
20@28
LA BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 15
2023 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 20, Los Angeles Rams 28.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Commanders.
Model confidence: LA 69%Our line: LA -6.7
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -6.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.190Net EPA / play+0.048
-0.106 (27)Offense EPA / play+0.039 (9)
+0.085 (31)Defense EPA / play-0.009 (22)
41.0% (21)Offense success %44.7% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LA by 6.7. Actual: 8 points. The model was within 1.3 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 0-4 ATS (0%)
LA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
LA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Sam Howell3946 yd · 21 TD · 21 INT
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin79 rec · 1002 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs LA
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LA by 6.7. The market has LA at -6.5.
Los Angeles Rams won, WAS 20, LA 28. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -6.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 15, the Washington Commanders were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.1, 3.4 below the market.
Week 15 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, LA 30, WAS 10 in Week 5 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Los Angeles Rams: WAS -0.190 against LA +0.048.
