Rams vs Commanders – Week 9 2026
LA
WAS
LA
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 9 · 2026 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Rams over the Commanders at 69% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: LA 69%Our line: LA -6.6
80% range around our line: WAS by 11 to LA by 24. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the LA game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
LA —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -6.6
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
LA · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
67%
DIFFERENCE
+2%
| SPORTSBOOK | LA | WAS | LA WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -225 | +185 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 9 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.114Net EPA / play-0.056
+0.073 (9)Offense EPA / play-0.015 (15)
-0.042 (10)Defense EPA / play+0.041 (23)
47.3% (7)Offense success %39.8% (27)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: LA at 69%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
LA generates 0.073 EPA/play on offense. WAS's defense allows 0.041. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
LA goes for it on 4th down 26% of the time, among the most aggressive in the NFL.
RED ZONE
LA converts 86% in the red zone vs 64% for WAS. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
Net-positive signal profile for LA. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
CLOSING LINE VALUE
OUR NUMBER
-5.5
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@LAW15 2023 | WAS 20, LA 28 | LA | W |
| LA@WASW5 2020 | LA 30, WAS 10 | LA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs WAS
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 69% win probability. The margin models project LA by 6.6. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Los Angeles Rams at 69% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 9 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, WAS 20, LA 28 in Week 15 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA +0.114 against WAS -0.056.
