Bills vs Vikings – Week 9 2026
BUF
MIN
BUF
AWAY
@
MON 8:15 PM
WEEK 9 · 2026 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Vikings over the Bills at 61% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: MIN 61%Our line: MIN -3.8
80% range around our line: BUF by 14 to MIN by 21. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the MIN game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -3.8
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
MIN · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
39%
DIFFERENCE
+22%
| SPORTSBOOK | BUF | MIN | MIN WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -175 | +145 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 9 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.077Net EPA / play+0.111
+0.210 (1)Offense EPA / play-0.099 (28)
+0.134 (30)Defense EPA / play-0.210 (1)
49.1% (3)Offense success %35.9% (32)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
WHY THIS PICK
MIN is our early forecast in BUF @ MIN (Week 9, 2026). The model assigns 61% confidence and projects MIN by 3.8. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL AGREEMENT
All three models picked this side. The tier above is a separate read: it reflects how big a margin they project, not how many agreed.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@BUFW10 2022 | MIN 33, BUF 30 | BUF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs MIN
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 61% win probability. The margin models project MIN by 3.8. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Minnesota Vikings at 61% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 9 of the 2026 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 33, BUF 30 in Week 10 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Minnesota Vikings: BUF +0.077 against MIN +0.111.
