DEN @ CAR – Week 9 2026
DEN
CAR
DEN
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 9 · 2026 SEASON
CAR
HOME
Model confidence: DEN 71%Projected margin: -5.1
DEN
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-5.1
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.138Net EPA / play-0.107
+0.050Offense EPA / play-0.039
-0.088Defense EPA / play+0.067
44.2%Offense success %43.1%
36.7%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: DEN at 71%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
DEN generates 0.050 EPA/play on offense. CAR's defense allows 0.067. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
RED ZONE
DEN converts 82% in the red zone vs 55% for CAR. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
Net-positive signal profile for DEN. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | DEN market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEN
B.Nix
QB
304.8SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
219.7SEASON PPR
R.Harvey
RB
206.6SEASON PPR
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
B.Nix3931 yd · 25 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
J.Dobbins772 yd · 4 TD
R.Harvey540 yd · 7 TD
B.Nix356 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
C.Sutton74 rec · 1017 yd · 7 TD
T.Franklin65 rec · 709 yd · 6 TD
E.Engram50 rec · 461 yd · 1 TD
P.Bryant31 rec · 378 yd · 1 TD
VS
3,931PASSyds3,011
1,668RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@DENW8 2024 | CAR 14, DEN 28 | DEN | W |
| DEN@CARW12 2022 | DEN 10, CAR 23 | DEN | L |
| DEN@CARW14 2020 | DEN 32, CAR 27 | DEN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs CAR
Who is favored in Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers?
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 71% win probability. The margin models project DEN by 5.1. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers play?
Week 9 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Denver Broncos vs Carolina Panthers game?
Denver Broncos, 14-28 in Week 8 of 2024.
Which team has been better, the Denver Broncos or the Carolina Panthers?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: DEN +0.138 against CAR -0.107.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
