Panthers vs Broncos – Week 8 2024
CAR
DEN
CAR
AWAY
14@28
DEN BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 8
2024 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Carolina Panthers 14, Denver Broncos 28.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 78% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 9 Panthers, 1 Broncos.
Model confidence: DEN 78%Our line: DEN -10.5
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN -13.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -10.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
-0.213Net EPA / play+0.138
-0.053 (23)Offense EPA / play+0.020 (14)
+0.160 (32)Defense EPA / play-0.118 (1)
41.3% (22)Offense success %42.7% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 10.5. Actual: 14. Off by 3.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
home_underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@CARW12 2022 | DEN 10, CAR 23 | DEN | L |
| DEN@CARW14 2020 | DEN 32, CAR 27 | DEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs DEN
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 78% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project DEN by 10.5. The market has DEN at -13.0.
Denver Broncos won, CAR 14, DEN 28. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 78% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Denver Broncos at -13.0, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 13.0 points.
In Week 8, the Carolina Panthers were without 9 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.1, 4.6 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Carolina Panthers, DEN 10, CAR 23 in Week 12 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Denver Broncos: CAR -0.213 against DEN +0.138.
