CAR @ DEN – Week 8 2024
CAR
DEN
CAR
AWAY
14@28
DEN BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 8
2024 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
Model confidence: DEN 78%Our line: DEN -10.5
DEN
PICK SIDE
-13.0
MARKET SPREAD
-10.5
OUR LINE
-357
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.213Net EPA / play+0.138
-0.053Offense EPA / play+0.020
+0.160Defense EPA / play-0.118
41.3%Offense success %42.7%
50.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 10.5. Actual: 14. Off by 3.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CAR | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +525 | -750 |
| Our fair price | +357 | -357 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DEN -13.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.15
OUR NUMBER
78%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
85%
DIFFERENCE
-7%
Both figures are for DEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
home_underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CAR
C.Hubbard
RB
241.6 SEASON PPR
B.Young
QB
195.0 SEASON PPR
A.Thielen
WR
130.8 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
B.Young2403 yd · 15 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
C.Hubbard1195 yd · 10 TD
B.Young249 yd · 6 TD
M.Sanders205 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
A.Thielen45 rec · 558 yd · 5 TD
X.Legette49 rec · 497 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@CARW12 2022 | DEN 10, CAR 23 | DEN | L |
| DEN@CARW14 2020 | DEN 32, CAR 27 | DEN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs DEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 78% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project DEN by 10.5. The market has DEN at -13.0.
The model projects 45.1 combined points. The market total is 40.5.
Week 8 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Carolina Panthers, DEN 10, CAR 23 in Week 12 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Denver Broncos: CAR -0.213 against DEN +0.138.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
