PHI @ CIN – Week 8 2024
PHI
CIN
PHI
AWAY
37@17
PHI BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 8
2024 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
Model confidence: CIN 61%Our line: CIN -3.7
CIN
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.7
OUR LINE
-155
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.212Net EPA / play+0.053
+0.114Offense EPA / play+0.090
-0.098Defense EPA / play+0.037
45.3%Offense success %47.2%
39.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN C-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but PHI won. Projected margin was 3.7, the model overestimated by 23.7 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 22.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PHI | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +124 | -148 |
| Our fair price | +155 | -155 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CIN -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
61%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
57%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
Both figures are for CIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
59°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
PHI
S.Barkley
RB
355.3 SEASON PPR
J.Hurts
QB
315.1 SEASON PPR
A.Brown
WR
216.9 SEASON PPR
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Philadelphia EaglesPASSING
J.Hurts2903 yd · 18 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
S.Barkley2005 yd · 13 TD
J.Hurts630 yd · 14 TD
K.Gainwell290 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
A.Brown67 rec · 1079 yd · 7 TD
D.Smith68 rec · 833 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@PHIW3 2020 | CIN 23, PHI 23 | PHI | P |
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs CIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CIN by 3.7. The market has CIN at -2.5.
The model projects 45.3 combined points. The market total is 47.5.
Week 8 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
They tied, CIN 23, PHI 23 in Week 3 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.212 against CIN +0.053.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
