2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PHI @ CIN – Week 8 2024
PHI
CIN
PHI
AWAY
37@17
PHI +20
FINAL · WEEK 8
2024 SEASON
CIN
HOME
TIER C
PICK: CIN
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: CIN 61%Projected margin: 1.0
CIN
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
1.0
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN C-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but PHI won. Projected margin was 1.0 -- the model overestimated by 21.0 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 22.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | CIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -148 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PHI
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
59°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
PHI
S.Barkley
RB
355.3SEASON PPR
J.Hurts
QB
315.1SEASON PPR
A.Brown
WR
216.9SEASON PPR
CIN
J.Chase
WR
403.0SEASON PPR
J.Burrow
QB
372.8SEASON PPR
C.Brown
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@PHIW3 2020 | CIN 23, PHI 23 | PHI | L |
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES