Eagles vs Bengals – Week 8 2024
PHI
CIN
PHI
AWAY
37@17
PHI BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 8
2024 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 37, Cincinnati Bengals 17.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Eagles.
Model confidence: CIN 61%Our line: CIN -3.7
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -3.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
+0.212Net EPA / play+0.053
+0.114 (6)Offense EPA / play+0.090 (7)
-0.098 (2)Defense EPA / play+0.037 (22)
45.3% (13)Offense success %47.2% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN C-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but PHI won. Projected margin was 3.7, the model overestimated by 23.7 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 22.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
59°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@PHIW3 2020 | CIN 23, PHI 23 | PHI | P |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs CIN
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CIN by 3.7. The market has CIN at -2.5.
Philadelphia Eagles won, PHI 37, CIN 17. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -2.5, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 8, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.3, 2.2 below the market.
Week 8 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
They tied, CIN 23, PHI 23 in Week 3 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.212 against CIN +0.053.
