2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
GB @ PHI – Week 1 2024
GB
PHI
GB
AWAY
29@34
PHI +5
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
PHI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: GB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: GB 63%Projected margin: -1.3
GB
PICK SIDE
+2.0
SPREAD
-1.3
PROJ MARGIN
+133
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but PHI won. Projected margin was 1.3 -- the model overestimated by 6.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 16 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.0 | GB market line | |
| MODEL ML | +133 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +110 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
GB
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
PHI
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
GB
J.Jacobs
RB
293.1SEASON PPR
J.Love
QB
233.9SEASON PPR
J.Reed
WR
197.0SEASON PPR
PHI
S.Barkley
RB
355.3SEASON PPR
J.Hurts
QB
315.1SEASON PPR
A.Brown
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@GBW10 2025 | PHI 10, GB 7 | PHI | W |
| GB@PHIW12 2022 | GB 33, PHI 40 | PHI | W |
| PHI@GBW13 2020 | PHI 16, GB 30 | GB | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES