GB @ PHI – Week 1 2024
GB
PHI
GB
AWAY
29@34
PHI BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
Model confidence: GB 63%Our line: GB -4.3
GB
PICK SIDE
+2.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.3
OUR LINE
-167
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.146Net EPA / play+0.212
+0.079Offense EPA / play+0.114
-0.067Defense EPA / play-0.098
44.9%Offense success %45.3%
44.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but PHI won. Projected margin was 4.3, the model overestimated by 9.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 16 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | GB | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +110 | -130 |
| Our fair price | -167 | +167 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD GB +2.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
46%
DIFFERENCE
+17%
Both figures are for GB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
PHI
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
GB
J.Jacobs
RB
293.1 SEASON PPR
J.Love
QB
233.9 SEASON PPR
J.Reed
WR
197.0 SEASON PPR
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Green Bay PackersPASSING
J.Love3389 yd · 25 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
J.Jacobs1329 yd · 15 TD
E.Wilson502 yd · 4 TD
C.Brooks183 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
J.Reed55 rec · 857 yd · 6 TD
T.Kraft50 rec · 707 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@GBW10 2025 | PHI 10, GB 7 | PHI | W |
| GB@PHIW12 2022 | GB 33, PHI 40 | PHI | W |
| PHI@GBW13 2020 | PHI 16, GB 30 | GB | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs PHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 4.3. The market has GB at +2.0.
Week 1 of the 2024 season, FRI 8:15 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, PHI 10, GB 7 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Philadelphia Eagles: GB +0.146 against PHI +0.212.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
