Packers vs Eagles – Week 1 2024
GB
PHI
GB
AWAY
29@34
PHI BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 29, Philadelphia Eagles 34.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Packers, 2 Eagles.
Model confidence: GB 63%Our line: GB -4.3
ODDS
SPREAD
GB +2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -4.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
GB · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
46%
DIFFERENCE
+17%
| SOURCE | GB | PHI | GB WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +110 | -130 | 45.5% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.146Net EPA / play+0.212
+0.079 (8)Offense EPA / play+0.114 (6)
-0.067 (4)Defense EPA / play-0.098 (2)
44.9% (14)Offense success %45.3% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but PHI won. Projected margin was 4.3, the model overestimated by 9.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 16 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
PHI
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@GBW10 2025 | PHI 10, GB 7 | PHI | W |
| GB@PHIW12 2022 | GB 33, PHI 40 | PHI | W |
| PHI@GBW13 2020 | PHI 16, GB 30 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs PHI
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 4.3. The market has GB at +2.0.
Philadelphia Eagles won, GB 29, PHI 34. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Green Bay Packers at +2.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 1, the Green Bay Packers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Philadelphia Eagles were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2024 season, FRI 8:15 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, PHI 10, GB 7 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Philadelphia Eagles: GB +0.146 against PHI +0.212.
