Eagles vs Packers – Week 10 2025
PHI
GB
PHI
AWAY
10@7
PHI BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 10
2025 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 10, Green Bay Packers 7.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Eagles, 2 Packers.
Model confidence: PHI 50%Our line: PHI +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI +0.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.105Net EPA / play+0.082
+0.026 (15)Offense EPA / play+0.115 (4)
-0.079 (8)Defense EPA / play+0.033 (22)
43.1% (20)Offense success %47.7% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PHI. Projected margin: 0.0. Actual: 3. Off by 3.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
COLD GAME
33°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
33°F
WIND
9 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@PHIW1 2024 | GB 29, PHI 34 | GB | L |
| GB@PHIW12 2022 | GB 33, PHI 40 | PHI | W |
| PHI@GBW13 2020 | PHI 16, GB 30 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs GB
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project GB by 0.0. The market has PHI at +1.5.
Philadelphia Eagles won, PHI 10, GB 7. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at +1.5, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 10, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 0.2 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2025 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, GB 29, PHI 34 in Week 1 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.105 against GB +0.082.
