Lions vs Commanders – Week 10 2025
DET
WAS
DET
AWAY
44@22
DET BY 22
FINAL · WEEK 10
2025 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 44, Washington Commanders 22.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 6 Lions, 2 Commanders.
Model confidence: DET 66%Our line: DET -5.7
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -8.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -5.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.091Net EPA / play-0.137
+0.081 (7)Offense EPA / play+0.005 (18)
-0.010 (14)Defense EPA / play+0.142 (30)
45.2% (12)Offense success %45.6% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 5.7. Actual: 22. Off by 16.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Primetime 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
64°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@DETW2 2022 | WAS 27, DET 36 | WAS | L |
| WAS@DETW10 2020 | WAS 27, DET 30 | DET | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs WAS
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 5.7. The market has DET at -8.5.
Detroit Lions won, DET 44, WAS 22. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -8.5, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 8.5 points.
In Week 10, the Detroit Lions were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Washington Commanders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.7, 5.8 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Detroit Lions, WAS 27, DET 36 in Week 2 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.091 against WAS -0.137.
