Steelers vs Chargers – Week 10 2025
PIT
LAC
PIT
AWAY
10@25
LAC BY 15
FINAL · WEEK 10
2025 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 10, Los Angeles Chargers 25.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Steelers, 2 Chargers.
Model confidence: LAC 66%Our line: LAC -5.5
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -5.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.007Net EPA / play+0.059
+0.025 (16)Offense EPA / play-0.024 (25)
+0.018 (18)Defense EPA / play-0.083 (7)
44.0% (17)Offense success %43.1% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LAC. Projected margin: 5.5. Actual: 15. Off by 9.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
LAC
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@PITW3 2024 | LAC 10, PIT 20 | PIT | W |
| PIT@LACW11 2021 | PIT 37, LAC 41 | PIT | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs LAC
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 5.5. The market has LAC at -3.0.
Los Angeles Chargers won, PIT 10, LAC 25. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -3.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 10, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Chargers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.0, 0.5 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2025 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, LAC 10, PIT 20 in Week 3 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Chargers: PIT +0.007 against LAC +0.059.
