Falcons vs Colts – Week 10 2025
ATL
IND
ATL
AWAY
25@31
IND BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 10
2025 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 25, Indianapolis Colts 31.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Falcons, 4 Colts.
Model confidence: IND 72%Our line: IND -7.8
ODDS
SPREAD
IND -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -7.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.018Net EPA / play+0.068
-0.021 (24)Offense EPA / play+0.072 (9)
-0.004 (15)Defense EPA / play+0.004 (16)
43.7% (18)Offense success %46.3% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected IND by 7.8. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 1.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
IND
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@ATLW16 2023 | IND 10, ATL 29 | ATL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs IND
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project IND by 7.8. The market has IND at -6.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, ATL 25, IND 31. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at -6.5, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 10, the Atlanta Falcons were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 1.7 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2025 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Atlanta Falcons, IND 10, ATL 29 in Week 16 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Indianapolis Colts: ATL -0.018 against IND +0.068.
