ATL @ IND – Week 10 2025
ATL
IND
ATL
AWAY
25@31
IND BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 10
2025 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
Model confidence: IND 72%Our line: IND -7.8
IND
PICK SIDE
-6.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.8
OUR LINE
-256
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.018Net EPA / play+0.068
-0.021Offense EPA / play+0.072
-0.004Defense EPA / play+0.004
43.7%Offense success %46.3%
44.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
IND A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected IND by 7.8. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 1.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ATL | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +250 | -310 |
| Our fair price | +256 | -256 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD IND -6.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.39
OUR NUMBER
72%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
73%
DIFFERENCE
-1%
Both figures are for IND. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
IND
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
ATL
B.Robinson
RB
370.8 SEASON PPR
K.Pitts
TE
210.8 SEASON PPR
D.London
WR
201.9 SEASON PPR
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
M.Penix1982 yd · 9 TD · 3 INT
RUSHING
B.Robinson1478 yd · 7 TD
T.Allgeier514 yd · 8 TD
M.Penix70 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
K.Pitts88 rec · 928 yd · 5 TD
D.London68 rec · 919 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@ATLW16 2023 | IND 10, ATL 29 | ATL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs IND
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project IND by 7.8. The market has IND at -6.5.
The model projects 46.8 combined points. The market total is 48.5.
Week 10 of the 2025 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Atlanta Falcons, IND 10, ATL 29 in Week 16 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Indianapolis Colts: ATL -0.018 against IND +0.068.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
