ARI @ SEA – Week 10 2025
ARI
SEA
ARI
AWAY
22@44
SEA BY 22
FINAL · WEEK 10
2025 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
Model confidence: SEA 74%Our line: SEA -8.9
SEA
PICK SIDE
-7.0
MARKET SPREAD
-8.9
OUR LINE
-291
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.107Net EPA / play+0.150
-0.018Offense EPA / play+0.033
+0.088Defense EPA / play-0.117
43.0%Offense success %46.3%
48.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SEA. Projected margin: 8.9. Actual: 22. Off by 13.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 15.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ARI | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +270 | -340 |
| Our fair price | +291 | -291 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SEA -7.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.36
OUR NUMBER
74%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
74%
DIFFERENCE
+0%
Both figures are for SEA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
SEA
Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
59°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
ARI
T.McBride
TE
315.9 SEASON PPR
J.Brissett
QB
227.4 SEASON PPR
Mi.Wilson
WR
220.6 SEASON PPR
SEA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
J.Brissett3366 yd · 23 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
M.Carter333 yd · 1 TD
E.Demercado312 yd · 0 TD
Z.Knight269 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
T.McBride126 rec · 1239 yd · 11 TD
Mi.Wilson78 rec · 1006 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@ARIW4 2025 | SEA 23, ARI 20 | SEA | W |
| SEA@ARIW14 2024 | SEA 30, ARI 18 | ARI | L |
| ARI@SEAW12 2024 | ARI 6, SEA 16 | ARI | L |
| SEA@ARIW18 2023 | SEA 21, ARI 20 | ARI | L |
| ARI@SEAW7 2023 | ARI 10, SEA 20 | SEA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs SEA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 74% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project SEA by 8.9. The market has SEA at -7.0.
The model projects 46.3 combined points. The market total is 44.5.
Week 10 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, SEA 23, ARI 20 in Week 4 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Seattle Seahawks: ARI -0.107 against SEA +0.150.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
