CLE @ NYJ – Week 10 2025
CLE
NYJ
CLE
AWAY
20@27
NYJ BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 10
2025 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
Model confidence: NYJ 50%Our line: NYJ +0.0
NYJ
PICK SIDE
+1.5
MARKET SPREAD
+0.0
OUR LINE
+100
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.094Net EPA / play-0.274
-0.190Offense EPA / play-0.127
-0.096Defense EPA / play+0.147
34.5%Offense success %40.7%
40.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NYJ C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NYJ. Projected margin: 0.0. Actual: 7. Off by 7.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CLE | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -130 | +110 |
| Our fair price | -100 | +100 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NYJ +1.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.24
OUR NUMBER
50%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
46%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
Both figures are for NYJ. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NYJ
Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
62°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CLE
H.Fannin
TE
186.4 SEASON PPR
Q.Judkins
RB
169.8 SEASON PPR
J.Jeudy
WR
120.7 SEASON PPR
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cleveland BrownsPASSING
S.Sanders1400 yd · 7 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Q.Judkins827 yd · 7 TD
D.Sampson175 yd · 0 TD
S.Sanders169 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
H.Fannin72 rec · 731 yd · 6 TD
J.Jeudy50 rec · 602 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@CLEW17 2023 | NYJ 20, CLE 37 | CLE | W |
| NYJ@CLEW2 2022 | NYJ 31, CLE 30 | CLE | L |
| CLE@NYJW16 2020 | CLE 16, NYJ 23 | CLE | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs NYJ
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New York Jets at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CLE by 0.0. The market has NYJ at +1.5.
The model projects 45.4 combined points. The market total is 37.5.
Week 10 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, NYJ 20, CLE 37 in Week 17 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Cleveland Browns: CLE -0.094 against NYJ -0.274.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
