Browns vs Jets – Week 10 2025
CLE
NYJ
CLE
AWAY
20@27
NYJ BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 10
2025 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 20, New York Jets 27.
Going in, our model had favored New York Jets at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Browns.
Model confidence: NYJ 50%Our line: NYJ +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
NYJ +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NYJ +0.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NYJ · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.094Net EPA / play-0.274
-0.190 (31)Offense EPA / play-0.127 (29)
-0.096 (5)Defense EPA / play+0.147 (31)
34.5% (32)Offense success %40.7% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
NYJ C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NYJ. Projected margin: 0.0. Actual: 7. Off by 7.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NYJ
Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
62°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@NYJW5 2026 | CLE 12, NYJ 17 | CLE | L |
| NYJ@CLEW17 2023 | NYJ 20, CLE 37 | CLE | W |
| NYJ@CLEW2 2022 | NYJ 31, CLE 30 | CLE | L |
| CLE@NYJW16 2020 | CLE 16, NYJ 23 | CLE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs NYJ
Our model takes New York Jets at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CLE by 0.0. The market has NYJ at +1.5.
New York Jets won, CLE 20, NYJ 27. Our model had favored New York Jets at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New York Jets at +1.5, meaning the book expects New York Jets to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 10, the Cleveland Browns were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 37.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 7.9 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New York Jets, CLE 12, NYJ 17 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Cleveland Browns: CLE -0.094 against NYJ -0.274.
