2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ARI @ SEA – Week 12 2024
ARI
SEA
ARI
AWAY
6@16
SEA +10
FINAL · WEEK 12
2024 SEASON
SEA
HOME
TIER B
PICK: ARI
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: ARI 65%Projected margin: -2.7
ARI
PICK SIDE
-1.0
SPREAD
-2.7
PROJ MARGIN
-115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick misses. SEA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but SEA won. Projected margin was 2.7 -- the model overestimated by 12.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.0 | ARI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -115 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ARI
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
SEA
home_underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
45°F
WIND
5 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
ARI
K.Murray
QB
297.2SEASON PPR
J.Conner
RB
253.8SEASON PPR
T.McBride
TE
243.8SEASON PPR
SEA
G.Smith
QB
266.0SEASON PPR
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
253.0SEASON PPR
D.Metcalf
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@SEAW10 2025 | ARI 22, SEA 44 | SEA | W |
| SEA@ARIW4 2025 | SEA 23, ARI 20 | SEA | W |
| SEA@ARIW14 2024 | SEA 30, ARI 18 | ARI | L |
| SEA@ARIW18 2023 | SEA 21, ARI 20 | ARI | L |
| ARI@SEAW7 2023 | ARI 10, SEA 20 | SEA | W |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES