Cardinals vs Seahawks – Week 12 2024
ARI
SEA
ARI
AWAY
6@16
SEA BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 12
2024 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 6, Seattle Seahawks 16.
Going in, our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Cardinals, 1 Seahawks.
Model confidence: ARI 65%Our line: ARI -5.4
ODDS
SPREAD
ARI -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ARI -5.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ARI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.011Net EPA / play-0.018
+0.067 (11)Offense EPA / play-0.030 (19)
+0.056 (26)Defense EPA / play-0.012 (11)
47.3% (8)Offense success %43.9% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick misses. SEA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but SEA won. Projected margin was 5.4, the model overestimated by 15.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
SEA
home_underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
45°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
SEA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
K.Murray3851 yd · 21 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
J.Conner1094 yd · 8 TD
K.Murray572 yd · 5 TD
T.Benson291 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
T.McBride111 rec · 1146 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@ARIW2 2026 | SEA 31, ARI 7 | SEA | W |
| ARI@SEAW10 2025 | ARI 22, SEA 44 | SEA | W |
| SEA@ARIW4 2025 | SEA 23, ARI 20 | SEA | W |
| SEA@ARIW14 2024 | SEA 30, ARI 18 | ARI | L |
| SEA@ARIW18 2023 | SEA 21, ARI 20 | ARI | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs SEA
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ARI by 5.4. The market has ARI at -1.0.
Seattle Seahawks won, ARI 6, SEA 16. Our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Arizona Cardinals at -1.0, meaning the book expects Arizona Cardinals to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 12, the Arizona Cardinals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Seattle Seahawks were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.9, 1.6 below the market.
Week 12 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, SEA 31, ARI 7 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Arizona Cardinals: ARI +0.011 against SEA -0.018.
