ARI @ SEA – Week 12 2024
ARI
SEA
ARI
AWAY
6@16
SEA BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 12
2024 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
Model confidence: ARI 65%Our line: ARI -5.4
ARI
PICK SIDE
-1.0
MARKET SPREAD
-5.4
OUR LINE
-189
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.011Net EPA / play-0.018
+0.067Offense EPA / play-0.030
+0.056Defense EPA / play-0.012
47.3%Offense success %43.9%
47.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick misses. SEA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but SEA won. Projected margin was 5.4, the model overestimated by 15.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ARI | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -115 | -105 |
| Our fair price | -189 | +189 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD ARI -1.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
65%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
51%
DIFFERENCE
+14%
Both figures are for ARI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
SEA
home_underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
45°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
ARI
K.Murray
QB
297.2 SEASON PPR
J.Conner
RB
253.8 SEASON PPR
T.McBride
TE
243.8 SEASON PPR
SEA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
K.Murray3851 yd · 21 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
J.Conner1094 yd · 8 TD
K.Murray572 yd · 5 TD
T.Benson291 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
T.McBride111 rec · 1146 yd · 2 TD
M.Harrison62 rec · 885 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@SEAW10 2025 | ARI 22, SEA 44 | SEA | W |
| SEA@ARIW4 2025 | SEA 23, ARI 20 | SEA | W |
| SEA@ARIW14 2024 | SEA 30, ARI 18 | ARI | L |
| SEA@ARIW18 2023 | SEA 21, ARI 20 | ARI | L |
| ARI@SEAW7 2023 | ARI 10, SEA 20 | SEA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs SEA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ARI by 5.4. The market has ARI at -1.0.
The model projects 44.9 combined points. The market total is 46.5.
Week 12 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, ARI 22, SEA 44 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Arizona Cardinals: ARI +0.011 against SEA -0.018.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
