NE @ MIA – Week 12 2024
NE
MIA
NE
AWAY
15@34
MIA BY 19
FINAL · WEEK 12
2024 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
Model confidence: MIA 72%Our line: MIA -7.7
MIA
PICK SIDE
-7.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.7
OUR LINE
-253
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.153Net EPA / play-0.017
-0.083Offense EPA / play-0.039
+0.070Defense EPA / play-0.022
42.4%Offense success %44.3%
45.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 7.7. Actual: 19. Off by 11.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +285 | -360 |
| Our fair price | +253 | -253 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIA -7.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.34
OUR NUMBER
72%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
75%
DIFFERENCE
-3%
Both figures are for MIA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
77°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
NE
D.Maye
QB
177.1 SEASON PPR
R.Stevenson
RB
175.9 SEASON PPR
D.Douglas
WR
147.7 SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
D.Maye2276 yd · 15 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
R.Stevenson801 yd · 7 TD
A.Gibson538 yd · 1 TD
D.Maye421 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
H.Henry66 rec · 674 yd · 2 TD
D.Douglas66 rec · 621 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NEW18 2025 | MIA 10, NE 38 | NE | W |
| NE@MIAW2 2025 | NE 33, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
| MIA@NEW5 2024 | MIA 15, NE 10 | MIA | W |
| NE@MIAW8 2023 | NE 17, MIA 31 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW2 2023 | MIA 24, NE 17 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs MIA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project MIA by 7.7. The market has MIA at -7.5.
The model projects 45.8 combined points. The market total is 46.0.
Week 12 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, MIA 10, NE 38 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Miami Dolphins: NE -0.153 against MIA -0.017.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
