Patriots vs Dolphins – Week 12 2024
NE
MIA
NE
AWAY
15@34
MIA BY 19
FINAL · WEEK 12
2024 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 15, Miami Dolphins 34.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Patriots, 1 Dolphins.
Model confidence: MIA 72%Our line: MIA -7.7
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -7.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.153Net EPA / play-0.017
-0.083 (27)Offense EPA / play-0.039 (21)
+0.070 (29)Defense EPA / play-0.022 (9)
42.4% (19)Offense success %44.3% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 7.7. Actual: 19. Off by 11.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
77°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NEW18 2025 | MIA 10, NE 38 | NE | W |
| NE@MIAW2 2025 | NE 33, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
| MIA@NEW5 2024 | MIA 15, NE 10 | MIA | W |
| NE@MIAW8 2023 | NE 17, MIA 31 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW2 2023 | MIA 24, NE 17 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs MIA
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project MIA by 7.7. The market has MIA at -7.5.
Miami Dolphins won, NE 15, MIA 34. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -7.5, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 12, the New England Patriots were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Miami Dolphins were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 0.2 below the market.
Week 12 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, MIA 10, NE 38 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Miami Dolphins: NE -0.153 against MIA -0.017.
