Eagles vs Rams – Week 12 2024
PHI
LA
PHI
AWAY
37@20
PHI BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 12
2024 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 37, Los Angeles Rams 20.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Eagles, 3 Rams.
Model confidence: PHI 60%Our line: PHI -3.3
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -3.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.212Net EPA / play-0.030
+0.114 (6)Offense EPA / play+0.014 (16)
-0.098 (2)Defense EPA / play+0.044 (25)
45.3% (13)Offense success %46.8% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PHI. Projected margin: 3.3. Actual: 17. Off by 13.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
LA
road_favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)home_underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@PHIW4 2026 | LA 24, PHI 20 | LA | W |
| LA@PHIW3 2025 | LA 26, PHI 33 | PHI | W |
| PHI@LAW5 2023 | PHI 23, LA 14 | PHI | W |
| LA@PHIW2 2020 | LA 37, PHI 19 | LA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs LA
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PHI by 3.3. The market has PHI at -3.0.
Philadelphia Eagles won, PHI 37, LA 20. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -3.0, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 12, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Rams were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 3.6 below the market.
Week 12 of the 2024 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, LA 24, PHI 20 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.212 against LA -0.030.
