2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CAR @ NO – Week 1 2024
CAR
NO
CAR
AWAY
10@47
NO +37
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
NO
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: NO
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: NO 74%Projected margin: 9.0
NO
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
9.0
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NO A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 9.0. Actual: 37. Off by 28.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 33.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | NO market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -192 | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CAR
home_underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
NO
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CAR
C.Hubbard
RB
241.6SEASON PPR
B.Young
QB
195.0SEASON PPR
A.Thielen
WR
130.8SEASON PPR
NO
A.Kamara
RB
265.3SEASON PPR
D.Carr
QB
150.9SEASON PPR
J.Johnson
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@NOW15 2025 | CAR 17, NO 20 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW10 2025 | NO 17, CAR 7 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW9 2024 | NO 22, CAR 23 | NO | L |
| CAR@NOW14 2023 | CAR 6, NO 28 | NO | W |
| NO@CARW2 2023 | NO 20, CAR 17 | NO | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES