CAR @ NO – Week 1 2024
CAR
NO
CAR
AWAY
10@47
NO BY 37
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
Model confidence: NO 74%Our line: NO -8.8
NO
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-8.8
OUR LINE
-290
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.213Net EPA / play-0.101
-0.053Offense EPA / play-0.057
+0.160Defense EPA / play+0.044
41.3%Offense success %40.6%
50.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NO A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 8.8. Actual: 37. Off by 28.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 33.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CAR | NO |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +160 | -192 |
| Our fair price | +290 | -290 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NO -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.61
OUR NUMBER
74%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
63%
DIFFERENCE
+11%
Both figures are for NO. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
home_underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
NO
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CAR
C.Hubbard
RB
241.6 SEASON PPR
B.Young
QB
195.0 SEASON PPR
A.Thielen
WR
130.8 SEASON PPR
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
B.Young2403 yd · 15 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
C.Hubbard1195 yd · 10 TD
B.Young249 yd · 6 TD
M.Sanders205 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
A.Thielen45 rec · 558 yd · 5 TD
X.Legette49 rec · 497 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@NOW15 2025 | CAR 17, NO 20 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW10 2025 | NO 17, CAR 7 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW9 2024 | NO 22, CAR 23 | NO | L |
| CAR@NOW14 2023 | CAR 6, NO 28 | NO | W |
| NO@CARW2 2023 | NO 20, CAR 17 | NO | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs NO
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 74% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project NO by 8.8. The market has NO at -3.5.
Week 1 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New Orleans Saints, CAR 17, NO 20 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, New Orleans Saints: CAR -0.213 against NO -0.101.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
