Panthers vs Saints – Week 1 2024
CAR
NO
CAR
AWAY
10@47
NO BY 37
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Carolina Panthers 10, New Orleans Saints 47.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Panthers, 4 Saints.
Model confidence: NO 74%Our line: NO -8.8
ODDS
SPREAD
NO -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -8.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
74%
NO · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
64%
DIFFERENCE
+10%
| SOURCE | CAR | NO | NO WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +160 |
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.213Net EPA / play-0.101
-0.053 (23)Offense EPA / play-0.057 (25)
+0.160 (32)Defense EPA / play+0.044 (24)
41.3% (22)Offense success %40.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 8.8. Actual: 37. Off by 28.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 33.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
home_underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
NO
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@NOW15 2025 | CAR 17, NO 20 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW10 2025 | NO 17, CAR 7 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW9 2024 | NO 22, CAR 23 | NO | L |
| CAR@NOW14 2023 | CAR 6, NO 28 | NO | W |
| NO@CARW2 2023 | NO 20, CAR 17 | NO | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs NO
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 74% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project NO by 8.8. The market has NO at -3.5.
New Orleans Saints won, CAR 10, NO 47. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New Orleans Saints at -3.5, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 1, the Carolina Panthers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New Orleans Saints, CAR 17, NO 20 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, New Orleans Saints: CAR -0.213 against NO -0.101.
