Patriots vs Bengals – Week 12 2025
NE
CIN
NE
AWAY
26@20
NE BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 12
2025 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 26, Cincinnati Bengals 20.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Patriots, 6 Bengals.
Model confidence: NE 69%Our line: NE -6.6
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -6.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.205Net EPA / play-0.138
+0.158 (1)Offense EPA / play-0.009 (19)
-0.047 (11)Defense EPA / play+0.130 (29)
48.4% (3)Offense success %45.5% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NE by 6.6. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 0.6 points of the real margin.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@CINW1 2024 | NE 16, CIN 10 | CIN | L |
| CIN@NEW16 2022 | CIN 22, NE 18 | CIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs CIN
Our model takes New England Patriots at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 6.6. The market has NE at -7.5.
New England Patriots won, NE 26, CIN 20. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New England Patriots at -7.5, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 12, the New England Patriots were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Cincinnati Bengals were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.4, 6.1 below the market.
Week 12 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 16, CIN 10 in Week 1 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.205 against CIN -0.138.
