Buccaneers vs Rams – Week 12 2025
TB
LA
TB
AWAY
7@34
LA BY 27
FINAL · WEEK 12
2025 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7, Los Angeles Rams 34.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: LA 74%Our line: LA -8.6
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -8.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
74%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.022Net EPA / play+0.206
-0.009 (20)Offense EPA / play+0.145 (2)
+0.013 (17)Defense EPA / play-0.061 (9)
42.4% (24)Offense success %51.8% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 8.6. Actual: 27. Off by 18.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 20.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LA
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@TBW9 2022 | LA 13, TB 16 | TB | W |
| TB@LAW3 2021 | TB 24, LA 34 | LA | W |
| LA@TBW11 2020 | LA 27, TB 24 | TB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs LA
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 74% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project LA by 8.6. The market has LA at -7.0.
Los Angeles Rams won, TB 7, LA 34. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -7.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 12, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 2.7 below the market.
Week 12 of the 2025 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, LA 13, TB 16 in Week 9 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Rams: TB -0.022 against LA +0.206.
