2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ LA – Week 12 2025
TB
LA
TB
AWAY
7@34
LA +27
FINAL · WEEK 12
2025 SEASON
LA
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: LA
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: LA 74%Projected margin: 7.1
LA
PICK SIDE
-7.0
SPREAD
7.1
PROJ MARGIN
-274
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LA A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 7.1. Actual: 27. Off by 19.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 20.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.0 | LA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -274 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.36 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LA
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
271.9SEASON PPR
E.Egbuka
WR
195.7SEASON PPR
R.White
RB
143.0SEASON PPR
LA
P.Nacua
WR
375.0SEASON PPR
M.Stafford
QB
350.4SEASON PPR
K.Williams
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@TBW9 2022 | LA 13, TB 16 | TB | W |
| TB@LAW3 2021 | TB 24, LA 34 | LA | W |
| LA@TBW11 2020 | LA 27, TB 24 | TB | L |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES