2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NYJ @ BAL – Week 12 2025
NYJ
BAL
NYJ
AWAY
10@23
BAL +13
FINAL · WEEK 12
2025 SEASON
BAL
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: BAL
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: BAL 75%Projected margin: 7.9
BAL
PICK SIDE
-14.0
SPREAD
7.9
PROJ MARGIN
-750
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 7.9. Actual: 13. Off by 5.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -14.0 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -750 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.13 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NYJ
Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
3 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NYJ
B.Hall
RB
207.7SEASON PPR
J.Fields
QB
142.7SEASON PPR
G.Wilson
WR
99.5SEASON PPR
BAL
D.Henry
RB
279.5SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
243.3SEASON PPR
L.Jackson
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@NYJW1 2022 | BAL 24, NYJ 9 | BAL | W |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES