Jets vs Ravens – Week 12 2025
NYJ
BAL
NYJ
AWAY
10@23
BAL BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 12
2025 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 10, Baltimore Ravens 23.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 75% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 75%Our line: BAL -9.2
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -14.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -9.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.274Net EPA / play+0.010
-0.127 (29)Offense EPA / play+0.034 (12)
+0.147 (31)Defense EPA / play+0.024 (20)
40.7% (29)Offense success %44.6% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 9.2. Actual: 13. Off by 3.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@NYJW1 2022 | BAL 24, NYJ 9 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 75% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BAL by 9.2. The market has BAL at -14.0.
Baltimore Ravens won, NYJ 10, BAL 23. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 75% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -14.0, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 14.0 points.
In Week 12, the Baltimore Ravens were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.1, 0.6 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 24, NYJ 9 in Week 1 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Baltimore Ravens: NYJ -0.274 against BAL +0.010.
