Ravens vs Jets – Week 1 2022
BAL
NYJ
BAL
AWAY
24@9
BAL BY 15
FINAL · WEEK 1
2022 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 24, New York Jets 9.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Ravens, 2 Jets.
Model confidence: BAL 67%Our line: BAL -6.1
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -6.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
BAL · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
71%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
| SOURCE | BAL | NYJ | BAL WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -265 | +231 | 71.2% |
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.019Net EPA / play-0.036
+0.004 (15)Offense EPA / play-0.087 (27)
-0.014 (15)Defense EPA / play-0.051 (8)
45.3% (11)Offense success %39.0% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 6.1. Actual: 15. Off by 8.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
NYJ
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@BALW12 2025 | NYJ 10, BAL 23 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs NYJ
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 6.1. The market has BAL at -6.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, BAL 24, NYJ 9. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -6.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 1, the Baltimore Ravens were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, NYJ 10, BAL 23 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.019 against NYJ -0.036.
