2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ NYJ – Week 1 2022
BAL
NYJ
BAL
AWAY
24@9
BAL +15
FINAL · WEEK 1
2022 SEASON
NYJ
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BAL
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BAL 67%Projected margin: -4.0
BAL
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
-4.0
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 4.0. Actual: 15. Off by 11.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -265 | Won · +$0.39 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
NYJ
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
BAL
Lamar Jackson
QB
236.1SEASON PPR
Mark Andrews
TE
190.5SEASON PPR
Devin Duvernay
WR
116.1SEASON PPR
NYJ
Garrett Wilson
WR
215.7SEASON PPR
Tyler Conklin
TE
131.5SEASON PPR
Michael Carter
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@BALW12 2025 | NYJ 10, BAL 23 | BAL | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES