Steelers vs Bengals – Week 1 2022
PIT
CIN
PIT
AWAY
23@20
PIT BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 1
2022 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 23, Cincinnati Bengals 20.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bengals.
Model confidence: PIT 59%Our line: PIT -3.2
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT +7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -3.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
PIT · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
26%
DIFFERENCE
+33%
| SOURCE | PIT | CIN | PIT WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +264 | -308 | 26.0% |
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.012Net EPA / play+0.125
+0.012 (12)Offense EPA / play+0.077 (5)
+0.024 (26)Defense EPA / play-0.048 (10)
45.1% (12)Offense success %47.3% (4)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PIT by 3.2. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
No noteworthy trends
CIN
Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Kenny Pickett2404 yd · 7 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
Diontae Johnson86 rec · 882 yd · 0 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@PITW3 2026 | CIN 27, PIT 30 | PIT | W |
| CIN@PITW11 2025 | CIN 12, PIT 34 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CINW7 2025 | PIT 31, CIN 33 | PIT | L |
| CIN@PITW18 2024 | CIN 19, PIT 17 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CINW13 2024 | PIT 44, CIN 38 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs CIN
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 3.2. The market has PIT at +7.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, PIT 23, CIN 20. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at +7.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 1, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, CIN 27, PIT 30 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Cincinnati Bengals: PIT -0.012 against CIN +0.125.
