PIT @ CIN – Week 1 2022
PIT
CIN
PIT
AWAY
23@20
PIT BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 1
2022 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
Model confidence: PIT 59%Our line: PIT -3.2
PIT
PICK SIDE
+7.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.2
OUR LINE
-145
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.012Net EPA / play+0.125
+0.012Offense EPA / play+0.077
+0.024Defense EPA / play-0.048
45.1%Offense success %47.3%
43.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PIT by 3.2. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PIT | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +264 | -308 |
| Our fair price | -145 | +145 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PIT +7.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$2.94
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
27%
DIFFERENCE
+33%
Both figures are for PIT. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
No noteworthy trends
CIN
Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
PIT
Najee Harris
RB
225.5 SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
180.7 SEASON PPR
George Pickens
WR
166.5 SEASON PPR
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Kenny Pickett2404 yd · 7 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
Najee Harris1034 yd · 7 TD
Jaylen Warren379 yd · 1 TD
Kenny Pickett237 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Diontae Johnson86 rec · 882 yd · 0 TD
George Pickens52 rec · 801 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@PITW11 2025 | CIN 12, PIT 34 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CINW7 2025 | PIT 31, CIN 33 | PIT | L |
| CIN@PITW18 2024 | CIN 19, PIT 17 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CINW13 2024 | PIT 44, CIN 38 | PIT | W |
| CIN@PITW16 2023 | CIN 11, PIT 34 | CIN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs CIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 3.2. The market has PIT at +7.5.
Week 1 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, CIN 12, PIT 34 in Week 11 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Cincinnati Bengals: PIT -0.012 against CIN +0.125.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
