2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
GB @ MIN – Week 1 2022
GB
MIN
GB
AWAY
7@23
MIN +16
FINAL · WEEK 1
2022 SEASON
MIN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: GB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: GB 67%Projected margin: -3.4
GB
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
-3.4
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but MIN won. Projected margin was 3.4 -- the model overestimated by 19.4 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | GB market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +113 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
GB
No noteworthy trends
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
GB
Aaron Jones
RB
248.6SEASON PPR
Aaron Rodgers
QB
239.2SEASON PPR
Allen Lazard
WR
174.8SEASON PPR
MIN
Justin Jefferson
WR
368.7SEASON PPR
Kirk Cousins
QB
291.6SEASON PPR
Dalvin Cook
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@MINW18 2025 | GB 3, MIN 16 | GB | L |
| MIN@GBW12 2025 | MIN 6, GB 23 | GB | W |
| GB@MINW17 2024 | GB 25, MIN 27 | MIN | W |
| MIN@GBW4 2024 | MIN 31, GB 29 | GB | L |
| GB@MINW17 2023 | GB 33, MIN 10 | MIN | L |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES