IND @ HOU – Week 1 2022
IND
HOU
IND
AWAY
20@20
FINAL · WEEK 1
2022 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
Model confidence: IND 70%Our line: IND -7.1
IND
PICK SIDE
-7.0
MARKET SPREAD
-7.1
OUR LINE
-235
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.141Net EPA / play-0.192
-0.168Offense EPA / play-0.189
-0.027Defense EPA / play+0.003
39.8%Offense success %36.9%
44.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
IND B-tier pick ends in a tie, a push, not a loss.
PUSH
The game ended in a tie, 20-20. Neither side took it. The pick is graded a push, not a loss.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
This one ended in a tie, a push. Ties sit out of the win rate; they are not counted as losses.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | IND | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -290 | +250 |
| Our fair price | -235 | +235 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD IND -7.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost
OUR NUMBER
70%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
72%
DIFFERENCE
-2%
Both figures are for IND. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
IND
Michael Pittman
WR
216.5 SEASON PPR
Matt Ryan
QB
155.3 SEASON PPR
Parris Campbell
WR
149.1 SEASON PPR
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Matt Ryan3057 yd · 14 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Jonathan Taylor861 yd · 4 TD
Zack Moss365 yd · 1 TD
Deon Jackson236 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Michael Pittman99 rec · 925 yd · 4 TD
Parris Campbell63 rec · 623 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@HOUW18 2025 | IND 30, HOU 38 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW13 2025 | HOU 20, IND 16 | IND | L |
| IND@HOUW8 2024 | IND 20, HOU 23 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW1 2024 | HOU 29, IND 27 | IND | L |
| HOU@INDW18 2023 | HOU 23, IND 19 | IND | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs HOU
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project IND by 7.1. The market has IND at -7.0.
Week 1 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, IND 30, HOU 38 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND -0.141 against HOU -0.192.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
