2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
IND @ HOU – Week 1 2022
IND
HOU
IND
AWAY
20@20
FINAL · WEEK 1
2022 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER B
PICK: IND
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: IND 70%Projected margin: -4.8
IND
PICK SIDE
-7.0
SPREAD
-4.8
PROJ MARGIN
-274
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND B-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but HOU won. Projected margin was 4.8 -- the model overestimated by 4.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.0 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | -274 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -290 | Lost |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
IND
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
IND
Michael Pittman
WR
216.5SEASON PPR
Matt Ryan
QB
155.3SEASON PPR
Parris Campbell
WR
149.1SEASON PPR
HOU
Davis Mills
QB
181.5SEASON PPR
Dameon Pierce
RB
166.4SEASON PPR
Brandin Cooks
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@HOUW18 2025 | IND 30, HOU 38 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW13 2025 | HOU 20, IND 16 | IND | L |
| IND@HOUW8 2024 | IND 20, HOU 23 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW1 2024 | HOU 29, IND 27 | IND | L |
| HOU@INDW18 2023 | HOU 23, IND 19 | IND | L |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES