2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ LAC – Week 1 2022
LV
LAC
LV
AWAY
19@24
LAC +5
FINAL · WEEK 1
2022 SEASON
LAC
HOME
TIER C
PICK: LV
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: LV 57%Projected margin: 0.4
LV
PICK SIDE
+3.5
SPREAD
0.4
PROJ MARGIN
+165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LV C-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but LAC won. Projected margin was 0.4 -- the model overestimated by 4.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.5 | LV market line | |
| MODEL ML | +165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +161 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LAC
Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
LV
Davante Adams
WR
335.5SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
328.3SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
219.1SEASON PPR
LAC
Austin Ekeler
RB
372.7SEASON PPR
Justin Herbert
QB
281.3SEASON PPR
Mike Williams
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@LACW13 2025 | LV 14, LAC 31 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW2 2025 | LAC 20, LV 9 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW18 2024 | LAC 34, LV 20 | LAC | W |
| LV@LACW1 2024 | LV 10, LAC 22 | LV | L |
| LAC@LVW15 2023 | LAC 21, LV 63 | LV | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES