Raiders vs Chargers – Week 1 2022
LV
LAC
LV
AWAY
19@24
LAC BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 1
2022 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 19, Los Angeles Chargers 24.
Going in, our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Chargers.
Model confidence: LV 57%Our line: LV -2.3
ODDS
SPREAD
LV +3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LV -2.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LV · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
LV · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
37%
DIFFERENCE
+20%
| SOURCE | LV | LAC | LV WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +161 | -180 | 37.0% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.064Net EPA / play+0.001
+0.000 (17)Offense EPA / play+0.007 (13)
+0.064 (29)Defense EPA / play+0.006 (19)
43.1% (21)Offense success %44.1% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
LV C-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but LAC won. Projected margin was 2.3, the model overestimated by 7.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LAC
Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Derek Carr3522 yd · 24 TD · 14 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@LACW2 2026 | LV 26, LAC 14 | LAC | L |
| LV@LACW13 2025 | LV 14, LAC 31 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW2 2025 | LAC 20, LV 9 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW18 2024 | LAC 34, LV 20 | LAC | W |
| LV@LACW1 2024 | LV 10, LAC 22 | LV | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs LAC
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 57% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LV by 2.3. The market has LV at +3.5.
Los Angeles Chargers won, LV 19, LAC 24. Our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Las Vegas Raiders at +3.5, meaning the book expects Las Vegas Raiders to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 1, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, LV 26, LAC 14 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LV -0.064 against LAC +0.001.
