Chiefs vs Cardinals – Week 1 2022
KC
ARI
KC
AWAY
44@21
KC BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 1
2022 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 44, Arizona Cardinals 21.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Cardinals.
Model confidence: KC 69%Our line: KC -6.7
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -6.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
KC · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
70%
DIFFERENCE
-1%
| SOURCE | KC | ARI | KC WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -252 | +221 | 70.2% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.204Net EPA / play-0.104
+0.186 (1)Offense EPA / play-0.088 (28)
-0.019 (14)Defense EPA / play+0.016 (23)
50.4% (1)Offense success %40.6% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 6.7. Actual: 23. Off by 16.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 17.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs ARI
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 6.7. The market has KC at -6.0.
Kansas City Chiefs won, KC 44, ARI 21. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -6.0, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 1, the Arizona Cardinals were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.204 against ARI -0.104.
