KC @ ARI – Week 1 2022
KC
ARI
KC
AWAY
44@21
KC BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 1
2022 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
Model confidence: KC 69%Our line: KC -6.7
KC
PICK SIDE
-6.0
MARKET SPREAD
-6.7
OUR LINE
-223
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.204Net EPA / play-0.104
+0.186Offense EPA / play-0.088
-0.019Defense EPA / play+0.016
50.4%Offense success %40.6%
42.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 6.7. Actual: 23. Off by 16.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 17.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | KC | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -252 | +221 |
| Our fair price | -223 | +223 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD KC -6.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.42
OUR NUMBER
69%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
70%
DIFFERENCE
-1%
Both figures are for KC. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
417.4 SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
316.3 SEASON PPR
Jerick McKinnon
RB
196.3 SEASON PPR
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Kansas City ChiefsPASSING
Patrick Mahomes5250 yd · 41 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Isiah Pacheco830 yd · 5 TD
Patrick Mahomes358 yd · 4 TD
Clyde Edwards-Helaire302 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Travis Kelce110 rec · 1338 yd · 12 TD
JuJu Smith-Schuster
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs ARI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 6.7. The market has KC at -6.0.
Week 1 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.204 against ARI -0.104.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
