2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ ARI – Week 1 2022
KC
ARI
KC
AWAY
44@21
KC +23
FINAL · WEEK 1
2022 SEASON
ARI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: KC 69%Projected margin: -4.0
KC
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
-4.0
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 4.0. Actual: 23. Off by 19.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 17.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -252 | Won · +$0.42 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
417.4SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
316.3SEASON PPR
Jerick McKinnon
RB
196.3SEASON PPR
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
200.5SEASON PPR
James Conner
RB
200.2SEASON PPR
Marquise Brown
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES