2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
SF @ CHI – Week 1 2022
SF
CHI
SF
AWAY
10@19
CHI +9
FINAL · WEEK 1
2022 SEASON
CHI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: SF
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: SF 69%Projected margin: -4.1
SF
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
-4.1
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SF but CHI won. Projected margin was 4.1 -- the model overestimated by 13.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 15.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | SF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -248 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
SF
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)
CHI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
SF
Christian McCaffrey
RB
238.4SEASON PPR
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
227.8SEASON PPR
George Kittle
TE
200.5SEASON PPR
CHI
Justin Fields
QB
296.0SEASON PPR
David Montgomery
RB
177.7SEASON PPR
Cole Kmet
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@SFW17 2025 | CHI 38, SF 42 | SF | W |
| CHI@SFW14 2024 | CHI 13, SF 38 | SF | W |
| SF@CHIW8 2021 | SF 33, CHI 22 | CHI | L |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES