2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ DAL – Week 1 2022
TB
DAL
TB
AWAY
19@3
TB +16
FINAL · WEEK 1
2022 SEASON
DAL
HOME
TIER C
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: TB 60%Projected margin: -0.4
TB
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-0.4
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 0.4. Actual: 16. Off by 15.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -133 | Won · +$0.70 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
DAL
Road Favorite 1-3 ATS (25%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
271.7SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
226.1SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
225.4SEASON PPR
DAL
CeeDee Lamb
WR
301.6SEASON PPR
Tony Pollard
RB
248.8SEASON PPR
Dak Prescott
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@DALW16 2024 | TB 24, DAL 26 | TB | L |
| DAL@TBW1 2021 | DAL 29, TB 31 | TB | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES