Buccaneers vs Cowboys – Week 1 2022
TB
DAL
TB
AWAY
19@3
TB BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 1
2022 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19, Dallas Cowboys 3.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Buccaneers, 1 Cowboys.
Model confidence: TB 60%Our line: TB -3.3
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -3.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TB · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
56%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
| SOURCE | TB | DAL | TB WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -133 | +120 | 55.8% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.013Net EPA / play+0.109
-0.038 (21)Offense EPA / play+0.012 (11)
-0.025 (12)Defense EPA / play-0.097 (2)
43.8% (20)Offense success %44.6% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 3.3. Actual: 16. Off by 12.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
DAL
Road Favorite 1-3 ATS (25%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
271.7 SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
226.1 SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
225.4 SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
Tom Brady4694 yd · 25 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
Mike Evans77 rec · 1124 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@DALW5 2026 | TB 24, DAL 16 | DAL | L |
| TB@DALW16 2024 | TB 24, DAL 26 | TB | L |
| DAL@TBW1 2021 | DAL 29, TB 31 | TB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs DAL
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project TB by 3.3. The market has TB at -2.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, TB 19, DAL 3. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -2.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 1, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Dallas Cowboys were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2022 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB 24, DAL 16 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Dallas Cowboys: TB -0.013 against DAL +0.109.
