Broncos vs Seahawks – Week 1 2022
DEN
SEA
DEN
AWAY
16@17
SEA BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 1
2022 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 16, Seattle Seahawks 17.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Broncos, 3 Seahawks.
Model confidence: SEA 62%Our line: SEA -4.2
ODDS
SPREAD
SEA +6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SEA -4.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SEA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
SEA · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
30%
DIFFERENCE
+32%
| SOURCE | DEN | SEA | SEA WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -253 | +221 | 29.7% |
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.060Net EPA / play-0.023
-0.109 (30)Offense EPA / play-0.003 (18)
-0.049 (9)Defense EPA / play+0.020 (25)
38.1% (31)Offense success %44.2% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SEA. Projected margin: 4.2. Actual: 1. Off by 3.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
No noteworthy trends
SEA
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
SEA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Russell Wilson3524 yd · 16 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Latavius Murray703 yd · 5 TD
Melvin Gordon318 yd · 2 TD
Russell Wilson277 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Jerry Jeudy67 rec · 972 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@DENW6 2026 | SEA 14, DEN 17 | DEN | W |
| DEN@SEAW1 2024 | DEN 20, SEA 26 | SEA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs SEA
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 4.2. The market has SEA at +6.0.
Seattle Seahawks won, DEN 16, SEA 17. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at +6.0, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 1, the Denver Broncos were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Seattle Seahawks were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2022 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Denver Broncos, SEA 14, DEN 17 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Seattle Seahawks: DEN -0.060 against SEA -0.023.
