Eagles vs Lions – Week 1 2022
PHI
DET
PHI
AWAY
38@35
PHI BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 1
2022 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 38, Detroit Lions 35.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Lions.
Model confidence: PHI 68%Our line: PHI -6.3
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -6.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
PHI · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
69%
DIFFERENCE
-1%
| SOURCE | PHI | DET | PHI WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -240 | +211 | 69.2% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.172Net EPA / play-0.006
+0.107 (3)Offense EPA / play+0.072 (6)
-0.064 (5)Defense EPA / play+0.078 (30)
48.3% (3)Offense success %45.6% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PHI. Projected margin: 6.3. Actual: 3. Off by 3.3 points but directionally right.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Road Favorite 2-5 ATS (29%)
DET
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@PHIW11 2025 | DET 9, PHI 16 | PHI | W |
| PHI@DETW8 2021 | PHI 44, DET 6 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs DET
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 6.3. The market has PHI at -6.0.
Philadelphia Eagles won, PHI 38, DET 35. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -6.0, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 1, the Detroit Lions were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, DET 9, PHI 16 in Week 11 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.172 against DET -0.006.
