Lions vs Eagles – Week 11 2025
DET
PHI
DET
AWAY
9@16
PHI BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 11
2025 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 9, Philadelphia Eagles 16.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 8 Lions.
Model confidence: PHI 63%Our line: PHI -4.5
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -4.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.091Net EPA / play+0.105
+0.081 (7)Offense EPA / play+0.026 (15)
-0.010 (14)Defense EPA / play-0.079 (8)
45.2% (12)Offense success %43.1% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PHI by 4.5. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 2.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Primetime 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
45°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@DETW1 2022 | PHI 38, DET 35 | PHI | W |
| PHI@DETW8 2021 | PHI 44, DET 6 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs PHI
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 63% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PHI by 4.5. The market has PHI at -2.5.
Philadelphia Eagles won, DET 9, PHI 16. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -2.5, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 11, the Detroit Lions were without 8 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.0, 0.5 below the market.
Week 11 of the 2025 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, PHI 38, DET 35 in Week 1 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Philadelphia Eagles: DET +0.091 against PHI +0.105.
