2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LAC @ JAX – Week 11 2025
LAC
JAX
LAC
AWAY
6@35
JAX +29
FINAL · WEEK 11
2025 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LAC
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: LAC 66%Projected margin: -2.6
LAC
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-2.6
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but JAX won. Projected margin was 2.6 -- the model overestimated by 31.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 32.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | LAC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LAC
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
74°F
WIND
9 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LAC
J.Herbert
QB
286.9SEASON PPR
K.Allen
WR
182.7SEASON PPR
L.McConkey
WR
180.9SEASON PPR
JAX
T.Lawrence
QB
338.2SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
253.9SEASON PPR
P.Washington
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@LACW3 2022 | JAX 38, LAC 10 | LAC | L |
| JAX@LACW7 2020 | JAX 29, LAC 39 | LAC | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES