Chargers vs Jaguars – Week 11 2025
LAC
JAX
LAC
AWAY
6@35
JAX BY 29
FINAL · WEEK 11
2025 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 6, Jacksonville Jaguars 35.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 66% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Jaguars.
Model confidence: LAC 66%Our line: LAC -5.5
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -5.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.059Net EPA / play+0.136
-0.024 (25)Offense EPA / play+0.030 (14)
-0.083 (7)Defense EPA / play-0.105 (3)
43.1% (19)Offense success %44.4% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but JAX won. Projected margin was 5.5, the model overestimated by 34.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 32.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
74°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@LACW3 2022 | JAX 38, LAC 10 | LAC | L |
| JAX@LACW7 2020 | JAX 29, LAC 39 | LAC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs JAX
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 5.5. The market has LAC at -3.0.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, LAC 6, JAX 35. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 66% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -3.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 11, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 2.2 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX 38, LAC 10 in Week 3 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: LAC +0.059 against JAX +0.136.
