Seahawks vs Rams – Week 11 2025
SEA
LA
SEA
AWAY
19@21
LA BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 11
2025 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Seattle Seahawks 19, Los Angeles Rams 21.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Seahawks.
Model confidence: LA 66%Our line: LA -5.5
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -5.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.150Net EPA / play+0.206
+0.033 (13)Offense EPA / play+0.145 (2)
-0.117 (2)Defense EPA / play-0.061 (9)
46.3% (7)Offense success %51.8% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 5.5. Actual: 2. Off by 3.5 points but directionally right.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LA
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@SEAW16 2025 | LA 37, SEA 38 | LA | L |
| SEA@LAW18 2024 | SEA 30, LA 25 | LA | L |
| LA@SEAW9 2024 | LA 26, SEA 20 | LA | W |
| SEA@LAW11 2023 | SEA 16, LA 17 | SEA | L |
| LA@SEAW1 2023 | LA 30, SEA 13 | SEA | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs LA
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LA by 5.5. The market has LA at -3.0.
Los Angeles Rams won, SEA 19, LA 21. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -3.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 11, the Seattle Seahawks were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.7, 2.8 below the market.
Week 11 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, LA 37, SEA 38 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Rams: SEA +0.150 against LA +0.206.
