Eagles vs Lions – Week 8 2021
PHI
DET
PHI
AWAY
44@6
PHI BY 38
FINAL · WEEK 8
2021 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 44, Detroit Lions 6.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 55% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Eagles.
Model confidence: PHI 55%Our line: PHI -1.7
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -1.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
55%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
+0.059Net EPA / play-0.161
+0.070 (10)Offense EPA / play-0.063 (23)
+0.011 (17)Defense EPA / play+0.098 (30)
46.9% (8)Offense success %42.0% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PHI. Projected margin: 1.7. Actual: 38. Off by 36.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 35.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@PHIW11 2025 | DET 9, PHI 16 | PHI | W |
| PHI@DETW1 2022 | PHI 38, DET 35 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs DET
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 55% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PHI by 1.7. The market has PHI at -3.0.
Philadelphia Eagles won, PHI 44, DET 6. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 55% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -3.0, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 8, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.7, 1.8 below the market.
Week 8 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, DET 9, PHI 16 in Week 11 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.059 against DET -0.161.
