2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
SF @ CHI – Week 8 2021
SF
CHI
SF
AWAY
33@22
SF +11
FINAL · WEEK 8
2021 SEASON
CHI
HOME
TIER C
PICK: CHI
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: CHI 51%Projected margin: -0.3
CHI
PICK SIDE
+4.5
SPREAD
-0.3
PROJ MARGIN
+191
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI C-tier pick misses. SF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CHI but SF won. Projected margin was 0.3 -- the model overestimated by 10.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +4.5 | CHI market line | |
| MODEL ML | +191 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -210 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
SF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
12 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
SF
Deebo Samuel Sr.
WR
339.0SEASON PPR
Jimmy Garoppolo
QB
227.5SEASON PPR
George Kittle
TE
198.0SEASON PPR
CHI
Darnell Mooney
WR
219.7SEASON PPR
David Montgomery
RB
195.0SEASON PPR
Justin Fields
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@SFW17 2025 | CHI 38, SF 42 | SF | W |
| CHI@SFW14 2024 | CHI 13, SF 38 | SF | W |
| SF@CHIW1 2022 | SF 10, CHI 19 | SF | L |
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES