49ers vs Bears – Week 8 2021
SF
CHI
SF
AWAY
33@22
SF BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 8
2021 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 33, Chicago Bears 22.
Going in, our model had favored Chicago Bears at 51% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 5 49ers, 1 Bears.
Model confidence: CHI 51%Our line: CHI -0.5
ODDS
SPREAD
CHI +4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CHI -0.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
51%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
+0.120Net EPA / play-0.127
+0.087 (7)Offense EPA / play-0.100 (29)
-0.034 (8)Defense EPA / play+0.026 (21)
45.7% (12)Offense success %41.2% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI C-tier pick misses. SF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CHI but SF won. Projected margin was 0.5, the model overestimated by 11.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
SF
339.0 SEASON PPR
Jimmy Garoppolo
QB
227.5 SEASON PPR
198.0 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
Jimmy Garoppolo3810 yd · 20 TD · 12 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@SFW17 2025 | CHI 38, SF 42 | SF | W |
| CHI@SFW14 2024 | CHI 13, SF 38 | SF | W |
| SF@CHIW1 2022 | SF 10, CHI 19 | SF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs CHI
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 51% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CHI by 0.5. The market has CHI at +4.5.
San Francisco 49ers won, SF 33, CHI 22. Our model had favored Chicago Bears at 51% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Chicago Bears at +4.5, meaning the book expects Chicago Bears to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 8, the San Francisco 49ers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 6.5 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, CHI 38, SF 42 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.120 against CHI -0.127.
