Patriots vs Chargers – Week 8 2021
NE
LAC
NE
AWAY
27@24
NE BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 8
2021 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 27, Los Angeles Chargers 24.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 54% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Patriots.
Model confidence: LAC 54%Our line: LAC -1.4
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -1.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
54%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
+0.135Net EPA / play+0.061
+0.069 (11)Offense EPA / play+0.095 (6)
-0.066 (5)Defense EPA / play+0.033 (24)
48.4% (4)Offense success %47.6% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC C-tier pick misses. NE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but NE won. Projected margin was 1.4, the model overestimated by 4.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@NEW17 2024 | LAC 40, NE 7 | LAC | W |
| LAC@NEW13 2023 | LAC 6, NE 0 | LAC | W |
| NE@LACW13 2020 | NE 45, LAC 0 | NE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs LAC
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 54% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LAC by 1.4. The market has LAC at -3.5.
New England Patriots won, NE 27, LAC 24. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 54% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -3.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 8, the New England Patriots were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 4.6 below the market.
Week 8 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 40, NE 7 in Week 17 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.135 against LAC +0.061.
