NE @ LAC – Week 8 2021
NE
LAC
NE
AWAY
27@24
NE BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 8
2021 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
Model confidence: LAC 54%Our line: LAC -1.4
LAC
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-1.4
OUR LINE
-118
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.135Net EPA / play+0.061
+0.069Offense EPA / play+0.095
-0.066Defense EPA / play+0.033
48.4%Offense success %47.6%
42.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC C-tier pick misses. NE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but NE won. Projected margin was 1.4, the model overestimated by 4.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NE | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +163 | -183 |
| Our fair price | +118 | -118 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LAC -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
54%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
63%
DIFFERENCE
-9%
Both figures are for LAC. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NE
Mac Jones
QB
224.9 SEASON PPR
Damien Harris
RB
210.1 SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
186.3 SEASON PPR
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
Mac Jones3801 yd · 22 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Damien Harris929 yd · 15 TD
Rhamondre Stevenson606 yd · 5 TD
Brandon Bolden226 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Jakobi Meyers83 rec · 866 yd · 2 TD
Kendrick Bourne55 rec · 800 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@NEW17 2024 | LAC 40, NE 7 | LAC | W |
| LAC@NEW13 2023 | LAC 6, NE 0 | LAC | W |
| NE@LACW13 2020 | NE 45, LAC 0 | NE | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs LAC
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 54% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LAC by 1.4. The market has LAC at -3.5.
The model projects 45.9 combined points. The market total is 50.5.
Week 8 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 40, NE 7 in Week 17 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.135 against LAC +0.061.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
