Chargers vs Patriots – Week 17 2024
LAC
NE
LAC
AWAY
40@7
LAC BY 33
FINAL · WEEK 17
2024 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 40, New England Patriots 7.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Chargers, 1 Patriots.
Model confidence: LAC 65%Our line: LAC -5.2
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -5.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.100Net EPA / play-0.153
+0.039 (12)Offense EPA / play-0.083 (27)
-0.061 (7)Defense EPA / play+0.070 (29)
42.0% (20)Offense success %42.4% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LAC. Projected margin: 5.2. Actual: 33. Off by 27.8 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 27.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
40°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@NEW13 2023 | LAC 6, NE 0 | LAC | W |
| NE@LACW8 2021 | NE 27, LAC 24 | LAC | L |
| NE@LACW13 2020 | NE 45, LAC 0 | NE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs NE
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 5.2. The market has LAC at -6.0.
Los Angeles Chargers won, LAC 40, NE 7. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -6.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 17, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 3.5 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2024 season, SAT 1:00 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 6, NE 0 in Week 13 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.100 against NE -0.153.
