2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ BUF – Week 8 2021
MIA
BUF
MIA
AWAY
11@26
BUF +15
FINAL · WEEK 8
2021 SEASON
BUF
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: BUF
PICK WONATS PUSH
Model confidence: BUF 73%Projected margin: 9.9
BUF
PICK SIDE
-15.0
SPREAD
9.9
PROJ MARGIN
-866
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 9.9. Actual: 15. Off by 5.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (+15.0). Push -- no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -15.0 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -866 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -983 | Won · +$0.12 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
9 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
MIA
Jaylen Waddle
WR
247.8SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
180.9SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
RB
173.6SEASON PPR
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
402.6SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
285.5SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@MIAW10 2025 | BUF 13, MIA 30 | BUF | L |
| MIA@BUFW3 2025 | MIA 21, BUF 31 | BUF | W |
| MIA@BUFW9 2024 | MIA 27, BUF 30 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW2 2024 | BUF 31, MIA 10 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW18 2023 | BUF 21, MIA 14 | BUF | W |
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES