MIA @ BUF – Week 9 2024
MIA
BUF
MIA
AWAY
27@30
BUF BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2024 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 76%Our line: BUF -9.5
BUF
PICK SIDE
-6.5
MARKET SPREAD
-9.5
OUR LINE
-315
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.017Net EPA / play+0.197
-0.039Offense EPA / play+0.189
-0.022Defense EPA / play-0.009
44.3%Offense success %47.5%
43.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 9.5. Actual: 3. Off by 6.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIA | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +230 | -285 |
| Our fair price | +315 | -315 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF -6.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.39
OUR NUMBER
76%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
71%
DIFFERENCE
+5%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
No noteworthy trends
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
MIA
D.Achane
RB
299.9 SEASON PPR
J.Smith
TE
222.3 SEASON PPR
T.Hill
WR
218.2 SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
T.Tagovailoa2867 yd · 19 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
D.Achane907 yd · 6 TD
R.Mostert278 yd · 2 TD
J.Wright249 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
T.Hill81 rec · 959 yd · 6 TD
J.Smith88 rec · 884 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@MIAW10 2025 | BUF 13, MIA 30 | BUF | L |
| MIA@BUFW3 2025 | MIA 21, BUF 31 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW2 2024 | BUF 31, MIA 10 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW18 2023 | BUF 21, MIA 14 | BUF | W |
| MIA@BUFW4 2023 | MIA 20, BUF 48 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs BUF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 76% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BUF by 9.5. The market has BUF at -6.5.
The model projects 46.3 combined points. The market total is 49.0.
Week 9 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, BUF 13, MIA 30 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Buffalo Bills: MIA -0.017 against BUF +0.197.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
