2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ BUF – Week 9 2024
MIA
BUF
MIA
AWAY
27@30
BUF +3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2024 SEASON
BUF
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: BUF
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: BUF 76%Projected margin: 9.7
BUF
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
9.7
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 9.7. Actual: 3. Off by 6.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -285 | Won · +$0.39 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
No noteworthy trends
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
9 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
MIA
D.Achane
RB
299.9SEASON PPR
J.Smith
TE
222.3SEASON PPR
T.Hill
WR
218.2SEASON PPR
BUF
J.Allen
QB
372.3SEASON PPR
J.Cook
RB
266.7SEASON PPR
K.Shakir
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@MIAW10 2025 | BUF 13, MIA 30 | BUF | L |
| MIA@BUFW3 2025 | MIA 21, BUF 31 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW2 2024 | BUF 31, MIA 10 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW18 2023 | BUF 21, MIA 14 | BUF | W |
| MIA@BUFW4 2023 | MIA 20, BUF 48 | BUF | W |
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES