Dolphins vs Bills – Week 9 2024
MIA
BUF
MIA
AWAY
27@30
BUF BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2024 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 27, Buffalo Bills 30.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 76% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Dolphins, 1 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 76%Our line: BUF -9.5
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -9.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.017Net EPA / play+0.197
-0.039 (21)Offense EPA / play+0.189 (2)
-0.022 (9)Defense EPA / play-0.009 (12)
44.3% (15)Offense success %47.5% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 9.5. Actual: 3. Off by 6.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
No noteworthy trends
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@MIAW10 2025 | BUF 13, MIA 30 | BUF | L |
| MIA@BUFW3 2025 | MIA 21, BUF 31 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW2 2024 | BUF 31, MIA 10 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW18 2023 | BUF 21, MIA 14 | BUF | W |
| MIA@BUFW4 2023 | MIA 20, BUF 48 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 76% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BUF by 9.5. The market has BUF at -6.5.
Buffalo Bills won, MIA 27, BUF 30. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 76% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -6.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 9, the Miami Dolphins were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 2.7 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, BUF 13, MIA 30 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Buffalo Bills: MIA -0.017 against BUF +0.197.
