2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
IND @ MIN – Week 9 2024
IND
MIN
IND
AWAY
13@21
MIN +8
FINAL · WEEK 9
2024 SEASON
MIN
HOME
TIER C
PICK: IND
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: IND 50%Projected margin: 1.1
IND
PICK SIDE
+6.5
SPREAD
1.1
PROJ MARGIN
+255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but MIN won. Projected margin was 1.1 -- the model overestimated by 6.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +6.5 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | +255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +240 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
MIN
divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
IND
J.Taylor
RB
246.7SEASON PPR
J.Downs
WR
182.2SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
165.8SEASON PPR
MIN
J.Jefferson
WR
317.5SEASON PPR
S.Darnold
QB
308.0SEASON PPR
A.Jones
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@MINW15 2022 | IND 36, MIN 39 | MIN | W |
| MIN@INDW2 2020 | MIN 11, IND 28 | MIN | L |
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES