Colts vs Vikings – Week 9 2024
IND
MIN
IND
AWAY
13@21
MIN BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 9
2024 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 13, Minnesota Vikings 21.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Colts, 2 Vikings.
Model confidence: IND 50%Our line: IND +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
IND +6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND +0.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.061Net EPA / play+0.103
-0.057 (24)Offense EPA / play+0.016 (15)
+0.004 (13)Defense EPA / play-0.086 (3)
40.2% (28)Offense success %45.6% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but MIN won. Projected margin was 0.0, the model overestimated by 8.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
MIN
divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@MINW15 2022 | IND 36, MIN 39 | MIN | W |
| MIN@INDW2 2020 | MIN 11, IND 28 | MIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs MIN
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIN by 0.0. The market has IND at +6.5.
Minnesota Vikings won, IND 13, MIN 21. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at +6.5, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 9, the Indianapolis Colts were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Minnesota Vikings were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.9, 2.1 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2024 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, IND 36, MIN 39 in Week 15 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Minnesota Vikings: IND -0.061 against MIN +0.103.
