DAL @ ATL – Week 9 2024
DAL
ATL
DAL
AWAY
21@27
ATL BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 9
2024 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
Model confidence: ATL 64%Our line: ATL -4.7
ATL
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.7
OUR LINE
-175
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.192Net EPA / play-0.027
-0.109Offense EPA / play+0.034
+0.083Defense EPA / play+0.061
40.6%Offense success %48.1%
45.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected ATL by 4.7. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 1.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DAL | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +140 | -166 |
| Our fair price | +175 | -175 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD ATL -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
60%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
Both figures are for ATL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
home_underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)Home Underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)
ATL
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DAL
C.Lamb
WR
263.4 SEASON PPR
R.Dowdle
RB
197.8 SEASON PPR
J.Tolbert
WR
152.0 SEASON PPR
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Dallas CowboysPASSING
D.Prescott1978 yd · 11 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
R.Dowdle1079 yd · 2 TD
E.Elliott226 yd · 3 TD
K.Turpin92 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
C.Lamb101 rec · 1194 yd · 6 TD
J.Tolbert49 rec · 610 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@DALW10 2021 | ATL 3, DAL 43 | DAL | W |
| ATL@DALW2 2020 | ATL 39, DAL 40 | DAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs ATL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ATL by 4.7. The market has ATL at -3.0.
The model projects 46.0 combined points. The market total is 52.0.
Week 9 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, ATL 3, DAL 43 in Week 10 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Atlanta Falcons: DAL -0.192 against ATL -0.027.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
