Cowboys vs Falcons – Week 9 2024
DAL
ATL
DAL
AWAY
21@27
ATL BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 9
2024 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 21, Atlanta Falcons 27.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Cowboys, 2 Falcons.
Model confidence: ATL 64%Our line: ATL -4.7
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL -4.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.192Net EPA / play-0.027
-0.109 (29)Offense EPA / play+0.034 (13)
+0.083 (30)Defense EPA / play+0.061 (27)
40.6% (23)Offense success %48.1% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected ATL by 4.7. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 1.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
home_underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)Home Underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)
ATL
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@DALW10 2021 | ATL 3, DAL 43 | DAL | W |
| ATL@DALW2 2020 | ATL 39, DAL 40 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs ATL
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ATL by 4.7. The market has ATL at -3.0.
Atlanta Falcons won, DAL 21, ATL 27. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at -3.0, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 9, the Dallas Cowboys were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Atlanta Falcons were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 52.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.0, 6.0 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, ATL 3, DAL 43 in Week 10 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Atlanta Falcons: DAL -0.192 against ATL -0.027.
