Commanders vs Giants – Week 9 2024
WAS
NYG
WAS
AWAY
27@22
WAS BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 9
2024 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 27, New York Giants 22.
Going in, our model had favored Washington Commanders at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Commanders, 3 Giants.
Model confidence: WAS 67%Our line: WAS -5.9
ODDS
SPREAD
WAS -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
WAS -5.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
WAS · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.128Net EPA / play-0.170
+0.139 (4)Offense EPA / play-0.107 (28)
+0.011 (15)Defense EPA / play+0.063 (28)
48.5% (4)Offense success %40.5% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected WAS by 5.9. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 0.9 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
No noteworthy trends
NYG
home_underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
52°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@WASW5 2026 | NYG 27, WAS 27 | NYG | P |
| WAS@NYGW15 2025 | WAS 29, NYG 21 | WAS | W |
| NYG@WASW1 2025 | NYG 6, WAS 21 | WAS | W |
| NYG@WASW2 2024 | NYG 18, WAS 21 | WAS | W |
| NYG@WASW11 2023 | NYG 31, WAS 19 | WAS | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs NYG
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project WAS by 5.9. The market has WAS at -4.5.
Washington Commanders won, WAS 27, NYG 22. Our model had favored Washington Commanders at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Washington Commanders at -4.5, meaning the book expects Washington Commanders to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 9, the Washington Commanders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Giants were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 0.9 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
They tied, NYG 27, WAS 27 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Washington Commanders: WAS +0.128 against NYG -0.170.
