Bears vs Cardinals – Week 9 2024
CHI
ARI
CHI
AWAY
9@29
ARI BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 9
2024 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 9, Arizona Cardinals 29.
Going in, our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Bears, 2 Cardinals.
Model confidence: ARI 64%Our line: ARI -4.8
ODDS
SPREAD
ARI -1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ARI -4.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ARI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.088Net EPA / play+0.011
-0.082 (26)Offense EPA / play+0.067 (11)
+0.006 (14)Defense EPA / play+0.056 (26)
39.9% (30)Offense success %47.3% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ARI. Projected margin: 4.8. Actual: 20. Off by 15.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
ARI
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@CHIW16 2023 | ARI 16, CHI 27 | CHI | W |
| ARI@CHIW13 2021 | ARI 33, CHI 22 | ARI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs ARI
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 64% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project ARI by 4.8. The market has ARI at -1.5.
Arizona Cardinals won, CHI 9, ARI 29. Our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Arizona Cardinals at -1.5, meaning the book expects Arizona Cardinals to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 9, the Chicago Bears were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.0, 0.5 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Chicago Bears, ARI 16, CHI 27 in Week 16 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Arizona Cardinals: CHI -0.088 against ARI +0.011.
