ARI @ CHI – Week 16 2023
ARI
CHI
ARI
AWAY
16@27
CHI BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 16
2023 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
Model confidence: CHI 66%Our line: CHI -5.5
CHI
PICK SIDE
-4.5
MARKET SPREAD
-5.5
OUR LINE
-193
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.157Net EPA / play-0.007
-0.071Offense EPA / play-0.049
+0.085Defense EPA / play-0.042
40.5%Offense success %41.8%
47.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CHI. Projected margin: 5.5. Actual: 11. Off by 5.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ARI | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +180 | -218 |
| Our fair price | +193 | -193 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CHI -4.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.52
OUR NUMBER
66%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
66%
DIFFERENCE
+0%
Both figures are for CHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
CHI
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
52°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
ARI
James Conner
RB
201.5 SEASON PPR
Trey McBride
TE
181.5 SEASON PPR
Kyler Murray
QB
146.4 SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray1799 yd · 10 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
James Conner1040 yd · 7 TD
Emari Demercado284 yd · 2 TD
Joshua Dobbs258 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Trey McBride81 rec · 825 yd · 3 TD
Marquise Brown51 rec · 574 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@ARIW9 2024 | CHI 9, ARI 29 | ARI | W |
| ARI@CHIW13 2021 | ARI 33, CHI 22 | ARI | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs CHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CHI by 5.5. The market has CHI at -4.5.
The model projects 44.9 combined points. The market total is 42.0.
Week 16 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, CHI 9, ARI 29 in Week 9 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Chicago Bears: ARI -0.157 against CHI -0.007.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
