Cardinals vs Bears – Week 16 2023
ARI
CHI
ARI
AWAY
16@27
CHI BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 16
2023 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 16, Chicago Bears 27.
Going in, our model had favored Chicago Bears at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Cardinals, 3 Bears.
Model confidence: CHI 66%Our line: CHI -5.5
ODDS
SPREAD
CHI -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CHI -5.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.157Net EPA / play-0.007
-0.071 (22)Offense EPA / play-0.049 (19)
+0.085 (32)Defense EPA / play-0.042 (14)
40.5% (25)Offense success %41.8% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CHI. Projected margin: 5.5. Actual: 11. Off by 5.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
CHI
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
52°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray1799 yd · 10 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
James Conner1040 yd · 7 TD
Emari Demercado284 yd · 2 TD
Joshua Dobbs258 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Trey McBride81 rec · 825 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@ARIW9 2024 | CHI 9, ARI 29 | ARI | W |
| ARI@CHIW13 2021 | ARI 33, CHI 22 | ARI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs CHI
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CHI by 5.5. The market has CHI at -4.5.
Chicago Bears won, ARI 16, CHI 27. Our model had favored Chicago Bears at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Chicago Bears at -4.5, meaning the book expects Chicago Bears to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 16, the Arizona Cardinals were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.9, 2.9 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, CHI 9, ARI 29 in Week 9 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Chicago Bears: ARI -0.157 against CHI -0.007.
