Lions vs Vikings – Week 16 2023
DET
MIN
DET
AWAY
30@24
DET BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 16
2023 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 30, Minnesota Vikings 24.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Lions, 2 Vikings.
Model confidence: DET 58%Our line: DET -2.8
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -2.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.093Net EPA / play-0.023
+0.064 (7)Offense EPA / play-0.041 (17)
-0.029 (17)Defense EPA / play-0.018 (20)
46.1% (6)Offense success %42.4% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 2.8. Actual: 6. Off by 3.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@MINW17 2025 | DET 10, MIN 23 | DET | L |
| MIN@DETW9 2025 | MIN 27, DET 24 | DET | L |
| MIN@DETW18 2024 | MIN 9, DET 31 | DET | W |
| DET@MINW7 2024 | DET 31, MIN 29 | DET | W |
| MIN@DETW18 2023 | MIN 20, DET 30 | DET | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs MIN
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DET by 2.8. The market has DET at -2.5.
Detroit Lions won, DET 30, MIN 24. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -2.5, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 16, the Detroit Lions were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Minnesota Vikings were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.0, 2.5 below the market.
Week 16 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, DET 10, MIN 23 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.093 against MIN -0.023.
