2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ KC – Week 16 2023
LV
KC
LV
AWAY
20@14
LV +6
FINAL · WEEK 16
2023 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER B
PICK: KC
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 70%Projected margin: 5.1
KC
PICK SIDE
-11.0
SPREAD
5.1
PROJ MARGIN
-487
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked KC but LV won. Projected margin was 5.1 -- the model overestimated by 11.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 17.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -11.0 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -487 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -600 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LV
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
KC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
38°F
WIND
11 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
LV
Davante Adams
WR
265.4SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
218.6SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
181.1SEASON PPR
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
280.2SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
219.4SEASON PPR
Isiah Pacheco
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@LVW18 2025 | KC 12, LV 14 | KC | L |
| LV@KCW7 2025 | LV 0, KC 31 | KC | W |
| LV@KCW13 2024 | LV 17, KC 19 | KC | W |
| KC@LVW8 2024 | KC 27, LV 20 | KC | W |
| KC@LVW12 2023 | KC 31, LV 17 | KC | W |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES