Seahawks vs Titans – Week 16 2023
SEA
TEN
SEA
AWAY
20@17
SEA BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 16
2023 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Seattle Seahawks 20, Tennessee Titans 17.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Seahawks, 9 Titans.
Model confidence: SEA 63%Our line: SEA -4.3
ODDS
SPREAD
SEA -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SEA -4.3
OUR LINE
PUSH
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SEA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.035Net EPA / play-0.055
+0.016 (11)Offense EPA / play-0.047 (18)
+0.051 (30)Defense EPA / play+0.007 (23)
43.9% (11)Offense success %39.7% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected SEA by 4.3. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
No noteworthy trends
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@TENW12 2025 | SEA 30, TEN 24 | SEA | W |
| TEN@SEAW2 2021 | TEN 33, SEA 30 | SEA | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs TEN
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 4.3. The market has SEA at -3.0.
Seattle Seahawks won, SEA 20, TEN 17. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at -3.0, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 16, the Seattle Seahawks were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tennessee Titans were without 9 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.4, 2.4 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, SEA 30, TEN 24 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Seattle Seahawks: SEA -0.035 against TEN -0.055.
