SEA @ TEN – Week 16 2023
SEA
TEN
SEA
AWAY
20@17
SEA BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 16
2023 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
Model confidence: SEA 63%Our line: SEA -4.3
SEA
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.3
OUR LINE
-168
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.035Net EPA / play-0.055
+0.016Offense EPA / play-0.047
+0.051Defense EPA / play+0.007
43.9%Offense success %39.7%
44.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected SEA by 4.3. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | SEA | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -166 | +140 |
| Our fair price | -168 | +168 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SEA -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
60%
DIFFERENCE
+3%
Both figures are for SEA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
No noteworthy trends
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
SEA
Geno Smith
QB
227.3 SEASON PPR
DK Metcalf
WR
225.4 SEASON PPR
Tyler Lockett
WR
202.4 SEASON PPR
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Seattle SeahawksPASSING
Geno Smith3624 yd · 20 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
Kenneth Walker III905 yd · 8 TD
Zach Charbonnet462 yd · 1 TD
Geno Smith155 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
DK Metcalf66 rec · 1114 yd · 8 TD
Tyler Lockett79 rec · 894 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@TENW12 2025 | SEA 30, TEN 24 | SEA | W |
| TEN@SEAW2 2021 | TEN 33, SEA 30 | SEA | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs TEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 4.3. The market has SEA at -3.0.
The model projects 44.4 combined points. The market total is 42.0.
Week 16 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, SEA 30, TEN 24 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Seattle Seahawks: SEA -0.035 against TEN -0.055.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
