Jaguars vs Buccaneers – Week 16 2023
JAX
TB
JAX
AWAY
12@30
TB BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 16
2023 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 12, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 61%Our line: TB -3.9
ODDS
SPREAD
TB +2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -3.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.034Net EPA / play+0.007
-0.070 (21)Offense EPA / play-0.017 (14)
-0.036 (16)Defense EPA / play-0.024 (18)
42.1% (15)Offense success %39.6% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 3.9. Actual: 18. Off by 14.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 20.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
TB
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
72°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 3.9. The market has TB at +2.0.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, JAX 12, TB 30. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at +2.0, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 16, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 2.6 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: JAX -0.034 against TB +0.007.
