Cowboys vs Dolphins – Week 16 2023
DAL
MIA
DAL
AWAY
20@22
MIA BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 16
2023 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 20, Miami Dolphins 22.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Cowboys, 1 Dolphins.
Model confidence: MIA 60%Our line: MIA -3.5
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -3.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.220Net EPA / play+0.136
+0.106 (3)Offense EPA / play+0.097 (4)
-0.114 (4)Defense EPA / play-0.039 (15)
47.4% (3)Offense success %47.2% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIA by 3.5. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 1.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
75°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs MIA
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 3.5. The market has MIA at -1.5.
Miami Dolphins won, DAL 20, MIA 22. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -1.5, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 16, the Dallas Cowboys were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Miami Dolphins were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.2, 3.3 below the market.
Week 16 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL +0.220 against MIA +0.136.
