NYG @ PHI – Week 16 2023
NYG
PHI
NYG
AWAY
25@33
PHI BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 16
2023 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
Model confidence: PHI 74%Our line: PHI -8.8
PHI
PICK SIDE
-14.0
MARKET SPREAD
-8.8
OUR LINE
-290
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.155Net EPA / play+0.005
-0.174Offense EPA / play+0.054
-0.019Defense EPA / play+0.049
37.9%Offense success %45.9%
44.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PHI by 8.8. Actual: 8 points. The model was within 0.8 points of the real margin.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYG | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +600 | -900 |
| Our fair price | +290 | -290 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PHI -14.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.13
OUR NUMBER
74%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
86%
DIFFERENCE
-12%
Both figures are for PHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
51°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NYG
Saquon Barkley
RB
223.2 SEASON PPR
Darius Slayton
WR
151.0 SEASON PPR
Wan'Dale Robinson
WR
133.2 SEASON PPR
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York GiantsPASSING
Tyrod Taylor1341 yd · 5 TD · 3 INT
RUSHING
Saquon Barkley962 yd · 6 TD
Daniel Jones206 yd · 1 TD
Tyrod Taylor197 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Darius Slayton50 rec · 770 yd · 4 TD
Darren Waller52 rec · 552 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@PHIW8 2025 | NYG 20, PHI 38 | PHI | W |
| PHI@NYGW6 2025 | PHI 17, NYG 34 | PHI | L |
| NYG@PHIW18 2024 | NYG 13, PHI 20 | PHI | W |
| PHI@NYGW7 2024 | PHI 28, NYG 3 | PHI | W |
| PHI@NYGW18 2023 | PHI 10, NYG 27 | PHI | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs PHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 74% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project PHI by 8.8. The market has PHI at -14.0.
The model projects 45.4 combined points. The market total is 41.0.
Week 16 of the 2023 season, MON 4:30 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, NYG 20, PHI 38 in Week 8 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Philadelphia Eagles: NYG -0.155 against PHI +0.005.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
